Monte Carlo Simulation

 

Monte Carlo Simulation is a powerful engineering tool that can be used for statistical analysis of uncertainty in engineering problems. If a system parameter is known to follow certain probability distribution, the performance of the system is studied by considering several possible values of the parameter, each following the specified probability distribution. In the context of system reliability, the Monte Carlo simulation involves constructing trial systems on a computer according to generated random numbers and determining the percentage of systems that fail. Of course, a large number of trial systems are needed if high confidence is required at small failure probability levels. The Monte Carlo approach, thus, requires considerable calculations and is useful only for complex interrelated systems or for the verification of other reliability analyses.

 

 Figure 1  Inverse CDF method